July 14, 2022

Praise Reports

Success

  • Bakhmut – Ukrainian military repelled Russian assaults near Kodema and Vershyna
  • No Advance – The latest British intelligence report reads: “In the Donbas, Russian forces continue to conduct artillery strikes across a broad front followed by, in some areas, probing assaults by small company and platoon-sized units. However, they have achieved no significant territorial advances over the last 72 hours and are in danger of losing any momentum built up following the capture of Lysychansk.”
  • Limited Russian Artillery – The Russian army started shelling Ukrainian positions much less frequently after the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed several military depots with the help of HIMARS. Due to this, the Russians have significantly reduced the intensity of artillery strikes. NASA FIRMS makes it possible to clearly demonstrate this. The satellites recorded a sharp decrease in shelling by Russian troops. In the first image below, you can see that on July 6, the Russians were regularly striking all along the front lines. Especially in eastern Ukraine. A week later, the situation has changed dramatically. This is shown in the second image above. Satellites NASA have recorded far fewer red dots. And most of them are not in the east, but in the south of Ukraine. The HIMARS MLRSs provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a key advantage in artillery duels. While previously the Russian side would first destroy everything in front of them and then move forward, the situation has now changed. It takes the Russians about 60 minutes to reload a battalion of Soviet MLRS. Western artillery systems can do five or six volleys in that time.
  • Another General – Russia has lost another General in Ukraine as the chief of staff of the 22nd Army Corps was killed when missiles hit the headquarters in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine. Major General Artem Nasbulin was killed on Tuesday after Ukraine fired US-supplied missiles. Serhiy Bratchuk, the spokesman for the Odesa regional military, wrote on Telegram about the “liquidation” of Major General Artem Nasbulin, the chief of staff of the 22nd Army Corps “after HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) missiles hit the headquarters in the Kherson region” of southern Ukraine

Truth Revealed

  • Anti-Missile – Ukrainian forces struck an air-defense system in Russian-occupied territory in the east of the country late Tuesday, in the latest sign of how long-range artillery sent by the West is shifting the war’s calculus. Russian state news agencies reported that Ukrainian forces had launched a strike on an air-defense system protecting the skies over Luhansk, the capital of one of two Russian-created statelets in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas area.
  • Pro-Russian Military Bloggers #1 – Roman Saponkov, a Russian military blogger embedded with Russian forces, said the HIMARS can “land on a penny”. In a Telegram post, he said: “Yesterday I happened to witness a HIMARS strike on Chernobayevka in Kherson, practically in front of my eyes. “I’ve been under fire many times, but I was struck by the fact that the whole packet, five or six rockets, landed practically on a penny.” He added: “Usually MLRS lands in a wide area, and at maximum range it completely scatters like a fan. It makes an impression, I won’t dispute that.
  • Vinnytsia – 3 Russian missiles struck on a normal lunch hour on a busy workday in the busy urban center of this peaceful western Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia has left about 90 wounded with the death toll of missile strike in Vinnytsia increased to 17, including 2 children. According to some reports, seven cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea landed in the city with four intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses. The area hit appeared to be the “House of Officers” building in Premehoy Square, a concert hall dating back to the Soviet era which residents say was used for cultural and social events.
  • Mikolaiv – Heavy shelling this morning in Mykolaiv. 9 S-300 missiles hit civilian targets with surface-to-surface purpose
  • Filtration Camps – The world’s largest security body has expressed “grave concern” about the alleged mistreatment of tens of thousands of Ukrainians in so-called filtration centers set up by Russia in Ukraine. Tens of thousands of civilians are taken to these centers in the self-proclaimed breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine, before being deported to Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said. There are around 20 such facilities on Russian-occupied territories, according to Yevhenii Tsymbaliuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to the OSCE. A new report by the OSCE said reports indicate that people are subject to “harsh interrogations and humiliating body searches” in these centers. Those found to have collaborated with Kyiv “often simply disappear” with some being allegedly transferred to Russian-controlled territories, where they are detained or even murdered, the report said. Experts also found “grave breaches of international humanitarian law”, particularly in the towns of Bucha and Irpin, where they saw “signs of torture and ill-treatment on the corpses of killed civilians” that showed a “disregard of the principle of humanity”. Targeted killing, rape, abductions and massive deportations of civilians had been repeatedly documented during the conflict, it said.
  • Pro-Russian Military Blogger – Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military on July 12 for sourcing Iranian UAVs to improve artillery targeting in Ukraine while failing to address the command issues that more severely limit the effectiveness of Russian artillery. Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed on July 12 that Russian requests and approval for artillery fire pass through a convoluted chain of command, resulting in a delay of several hours to several days between Russian ground forces requesting artillery fire, Russian targeting, and conducting the actual strikes. Rybar claimed that Russian forces in Syria reduced the time between targeting and striking to under an hour. Rybar claimed that while the Russian need for more UAVs is clear and that Iranian UAVs helped achieve a target-to-fire time of 40 minutes in Syrian training grounds additional UAVs do not solve the problems of overcentralized Russian command and overreliance on artillery in Ukraine. Russian milblogger Voyennyi Osvedomitel’ claimed that Russian forces had faced the same overcentralized command during the First Chechen War, wherein the inability of Russian ground forces to request artillery support without going through a chain of command inhibited responses to enemy offensive actions. Milblogger Yuzhnyi Veterclaimed that Ukrainian artillery forces’ target-to-response time is under 40 seconds.
  • Grain – Russia, Instanbul, Ukraine, and the UN are claiming developments in the negotiations for releasing the grain blockade on Odessa. Although not all elements have been addressed, each negotiating party is returning to speak with its respective military officials to develop an appropriate plan. They will reconvene next week to continue the negotiations. Turkey’s defense minister Hulusi Akar said Ankara will ensure the safety of shipments in transit and the parties will jointly check grain cargoes in ports after officials from Ukraine, Russia, United Nations and Turkey met for talks in Istanbul on Wednesday. UN chief António Guterres described the talks as a “critical step forward” but said more work was needed before a deal is set to be signed next week. Meanwhile, a traffic jam of more than 130 cargo ships loaded with Ukrainian grain is waiting in the Black Sea to pass into the Danube. The ships are waiting to access exit routes through the Sulina and Bystre estuary canals to reach a series of ports and terminals in Romania from where the grain can be transported on around the world
  • International Court – The attack on Vinnytsia took place as Ukraine’s top war crimes prosecutor and judicial authorities from across Europe gathered in The Hague to coordinate investigations into atrocities since Russia’s invasion. The Ukraine Accountability Conference kickstarted as Russia “commits another war crime”, Kuleba tweeted.
  • Russian Mobilization – The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia. Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000). Separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families.  Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July. Tyumen Oblast officials announced the formation of volunteer units (not specifically a battalion) on July 7. Volunteer battalions could generate around 34,000 new servicemen by the end of August if each federal subject produces at least one military unit of 400 men. Some Russian reports and documentation suggest that the Kremlin seeks to recruit an estimated 400 soldiers per battalion, who will receive a month of training before deploying to Ukraine. The number of men may vary as some federal subjects such as Republic of Tatarstan and Chechnya are establishing two and four volunteer battalions, respectively. It is possible that some federal subjects may delay or not participate in the establishment of the battalions, with officials in Volgograd reportedly remaining silent on the formation of the new units. Newly formed battalions are currently departing to training grounds and will likely complete their month-long training by end of August but they will not be combat ready in such a short time period.
  • Occupation – Children – Russian occupation authorities may be setting conditions to forcibly transport Ukrainian children in occupied territories to Crimea to coerce Ukrainians into collaborating with the occupation government. The Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration reported that the Russian-backed government in occupied Kherson Oblast will only open 20% of available schools for the school year starting on September 1, 2022, and that occupation authorities will transport Ukrainian children to the Nakimovsky Naval School in Sevastopol, Crimea for education instead of schools in occupied Kherson.[51] While ISW cannot verify these claims, separating children from their parents (likely involuntarily) would allow Russian occupation authorities to threaten to harm the children if the parents do not cooperate. The report also states that the Russia-backed government forced Kherson Oblast teachers to travel to Crimea for training, likely to further increase civilian compliance with the occupation government in Kherson.

Support

  • US – announces additional $1.7 billion aid to Ukraine

Pray Points – Latest

  • Special Meeting of Russian Duma – July 15 – At the meeting of they are going to suggest changing Putin’s title from president to “ruler” but also they are most likely going to suggest ways to increase the military effectiveness of the “special operation” up to declaring war and general mobilization.
  • Rain – Russia is using incendiary bombs in attempts to through fire destroy crops and villages.
  • Kherson/Zaporozhia – Zelensky ordered to liberate the south of Ukraine. Vice PM of Ukraine Vereshuk is urging population in temporary occupied territories in southern regions of Ukraine to evacuate
  • Belarus – AEW&C A-50 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces (reg.number RF-94268) is flying south of Minsk. A fighter is flying (circling) together with AEW&C A-50 aircraft south of Minsk
  • Donetsk – Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said the cities of Druzhkivka, Slovyansk, Chasovoy Yar, Hirnyk and Svitlodar had been attacked. The governor of the Luhansk region has said Russian forces are creating “hell” in shelling the Donetsk region. Serhiy Haidai said Russian forces fired 8 artillery shells, 3 mortar shells and launched 9 rocket strikes overnight.
  • Refugees – Ukraine’s deputy prime minister has asked all residents in the Russian-occupied regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to “evacuate by all possible means”. “Please leave – our army will begin retaking these areas. Our determination is rock solid. And it will be very difficult later to open humanitarian corridors when children are involved,” said Iryna Vereshchuk, according to Ukrainian media.
  • Severodonetsk – Sergey Haidai, Lughansk Governor, “In Severodonetsk, 80% of housing was destroyed or damaged. Some people try to return for things, but more and more often … they find an empty apartment, even if it survived. Having entered the city, the Russians first deported part of the local population, took away the keys, and then began to rob everything. They drive up to high-rise buildings in trucks. If the furniture is good, they take it away. It is no longer just about household appliances. The city is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster – there is no centralized water supply, gas supply, or electricity supply. Since the end of February, the occupiers have been shelling critical infrastructure facilities, destroying them almost completely. They will not be able to repair anything. Because even in peacetime, such a volume of restoration can be done in six months to a year. If materials and skilled workers are available. Russians have neither that nor the other. Big problem with sewage. Treatment plants are not working, as well as pumping stations. Sewage accumulates. Add to that the air temperature. And the stench from the dead – those who were buried in yards, and many remain in apartments and entrances. Severodonetsk is witnessing a humanitarian disaster.” It is thought that around as many as 15,000 civilians may still be in the city, which has been a key strategic point for the Russian occupation of the Luhansk region.
  • Slovyansk – Mayor Vadym Lyakh said about 23,000 people out of 110,000 were still in Sloviansk but claimed Russia had been unable to surround the city. The governor of the Donetsk region has also urged 350,000 civilians to evacuate in light of an imminent Russian offensive. Pavlo Kyrylenko said that getting people out is necessary to save lives and to enable the Ukrainian army to better defend towns from the Russian advance. The battle for Sloviansk is likely to be the next key contest in the struggle for Donbas as Russian forces approach within 16km of the Donetsk town, the UK Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday. Russian forces from the eastern and western groups of forces are likely now around 16km north of Sloviansk as central and southern groups of forces also pose a threat to the town, according to the latest British intelligence report.
  • UK – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed to resign Thursday after days of defections crippled the controversial leader and left him unable to govern. Boris Johnson is to stand down as Conservative Party leader, but intends to carry on as prime minister until the autumn
  • Corruption – Besides fighting Russia, Ukraine must also actively combat corruption in order to unleash a massive influx of reconstruction money, the head of the UN development agency told AFP. Fighting corruption — endemic in Ukraine long before the Russian invasion — will “prevent theft from its own people”, United Nations Development Programme administrator Achim Steiner said. Corruption is theft from development, from the public coffers and ultimately from citizens themselves, the UNDP chief said, on the sidelines of the Lugano reconstruction conference.
  • Bakhmut – Klynove, 8 km East of Bakhmut, has fallen to the Russian invasion army Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov noted that Russian forces around Bakhmut have a distinct advantage in terms of force and means. Gromov stated that Russian forces are conducting operations towards Soledar, which lies just northeast of Bakhmut along the T0513 Bakhmut-Siversk highway, and suggests that Russian forces additionally seek to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T0513.
  • Lysychansk – Ukraine has withdrawn. Russia will shift the main focus of its war in Ukraine to trying to seize all of the Donetsk region after capturing neighbouring Luhansk, the Luhansk region’s governor Serhai Haidai has said. He claimed about 8,000 civilians remain in occupied Sievierodonetsk and about 10,000 in newly occupied Lysychansk. “We maintain the defense of a small part of Luhansk region so that our military has time to build defences.”
  • Donetsk – Serhiy Gaidai said in an interview that he expected the city of Sloviansk and the town of Bakhmut in particular to come under attack as Russia tries to take full control of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
  • Odessa – two enemy missile carriers, with more than a dozen cruise missiles on board, continue to be present in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, posing a threat of strikes across Ukraine. “Three large landing craft have joined them. Not feeling protected, they keep a safe distance from the Ukrainian coast,” the military added.
  • Belarus – Lukashenka claims Ukrainian military attempted to strike military installations in Belarus, but all missiles were intercepted. Says now Belarusian missiles aimed to “centers of decision making against Belarus.” Lukashenka says that Minsk doesn’t want to take part in the war in Ukraine. Says Putin doesn’t use nuclear blackmail. Says Minsk and Moscow should be ready to respond to “aggressive actions by the West” in 24 hours
  • Belgorod – At least three people were killed and dozens of homes damaged by blasts in the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border, the regional governor said on Sunday, while Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in occupied southern Ukraine. At least 11 apartment buildings and 39 houses were damaged, including five that were destroyed, Gladkov said on the Telegram messaging app. Senior Russian lawmaker Andrei Klishas accused Ukraine of shelling Belgorod and called for a stern response. “The death of civilians and the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Belgorod are a direct act of aggression on the part of Ukraine and require the most severe – including a military – response,” Klishas wrote on Telegram. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a “deliberate strike” on residential areas of Belgorod with three Tochka-U ballistic missiles with cluster munitions, the Russian Defense Ministry said. According to the department, all the missiles were destroyed by air defense systems, but fragments of one of them fell on a residential building. “Also, Russian air defense systems destroyed two Tu-143 Reis Ukrainian reactive unmanned aerial vehicles stuffed with explosives on their way to Kursk,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said at a briefing. According to him, the missile strike was “purposefully planned and carried out against the peaceful civilian population of Russian cities.”
  • Logistics – Konstiantyn Nemichev, stated that Ukrainian forces will use US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to disrupt Russian Ground Lines of Communication or GLOCs running through Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Izyum. Kupyansk is a significant logistical hub for Russian forces operating on the Kharkiv axis and is located approximately 50km from the frontline. Vovchansk lies approximately 15-20 km from the frontline, but Russian operations in northern Kharkiv have prevented Ukrainian forces from targeting Vovchansk with indirect fire thus far. Russian GLOCs to Izyum are the most exposed, approximately 15km east of the nearest frontline, and NASA FIRMS heat anomaly detection has observed heat anomalies consistent with indirect fire attacks in wooded areas west of Izyum in recent weeks. Most Russian major ammunition depots and support stations along the Kharkiv axis would be within the range of HIMARS systems that would cover the Kharkiv axis.
  • Kharkiv – Located 25 miles from the Russian border, Kharkiv has great strategic importance as the gateway to the east of Ukraine. Russia tried to conquer it during the first week of the war, sending columns of tanks and military police units towards the city. Apart from a short lull some three weeks ago, Russia’s relentless shelling of the city, coming mostly out of the Russian border town of Belgorod, never stopped, destroying more than 2,000 buildings and killing more than 900 civilians in the process, according to the regional governor, Oleh Synehubov. Over the last two weeks, the city has seen some of the heaviest bombardments since the start of the war, and there are fears among senior Ukrainian officials, as well as local military heads, that a renewed Russian offensive is looming. The Russians usually start with rocket attacks, then heavy artillery comes in, and then they move in with tanks and infantry. We see the first part already happening,” Andrey Mogyla, a Ukrainian soldier, said. Equally concerning, according to Mogyla, were the recent bits of intelligence from “western partners” that his team received, including satellite images that showed Russia massing new troops and military hardware on the frontlines near Kharkiv. According to Mogyla, about 100 army units, including 50 tanks and eight battalions, were moved there three weeks ago on the eastern side of Kharkiv near the Russian-occupied village of Shevchenkove.
  • Kherson – Russian military detained Kherson mayor Ihor Kolykhaev. Meanwhile Russian authorities continued to take measures to strengthen the economic integration of occupied areas into Russian systems on June 27. First Deputy Head of the Kherson Oblast Council Yury Sobolevskyi stated on June 26 that Russian authorities are opening the first branch of the Russian state-backed Promsvyazbank in Kherson Oblast. Sobolevskyi added that Russian authorities are distributing one-time 10,000-ruble payments to ”almost everyone” to foster economic reliance on the ruble economy. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command additionally reported that Russian authorities in Kherson City are seizing banking institutions and issuing Russian salary cards to those working in enterprises that have been co-opted by Russian occupation authorities. Such actions are likely intended to force occupied areas to become increasingly reliant on the ruble, stimulating long term integration into the Russian economy.
  • Drones – Ukrainian forces have largely halted the use of Turkish Bayraktar drones, which were used to great effect earlier in the war, due to improvements in Russian air-defense capabilities. Ukrainian officials are reportedly increasingly concerned that US-provided Gray Eagle strike drones will also be shot down by reinforced Russian air defense over the Donbas.
  • Weapons – Pray for the German, French and Italian leaders today to bring to Kiev heavy weapons and not pressure to concede to Russian demands.
  • Mariupol – Only 3% of Mariupol residents have access to water, according to the Russian-occupied southern Ukrainian city’s mayoral adviser, Petro Andriushchenko. Residents are being forced to take water everywhere, “including sewage wells”, Andriushchenko said. There are no doctors left in the city, he said, leaving more than 100,000 people without healthcare and medication. Mayor Vadim Boychenko, the administration said “more than 100,000 people who still remain in the city do not have access to drinking water. Currently, the occupiers provide it once a week.  Residents stand in line for 4-8 hours.  They are on the verge of death.  This is a humanitarian catastrophe.  Therefore, we must do everything possible to open a green corridor and save people,” the mayor said. He added that Russians and “collaborators” had also restricted residents’ access to food.  “At the same time, the city is left without gas, light and drainage system.” Now there is a major outbreak of cholera as the officials of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) continue to fail to provide the residents of Mariupol with basic social services or quality-of-life assurances. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko stated that DNR authorities are unable to provide water, humanitarian aid, or medical services to residents and that corruption amongst DNR collaborators is further complicating the situation. Head of the DNR Denis Pushilin stated that his priority is restoring the school system in Mariupol despite continual administrative failures to provide even the most basic food and water services.
  • Izyum/Slovyansk – Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman. Right now Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a counteroffensive northwest of Izyum intended to draw Russian forces away from offensive operations toward Slovyansk and disrupt Russian supply lines and are making minor gains.
  • Russian Navy – Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command additionally reported that Russian forces are restructuring their naval grouping to include more submarines, which is a likely response to successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian naval assets in the Black Sea.
  • Zaporozhia – Russia is repositioning forces to reinforce the front here.
  • Navalny – on June 21, the Russian opposition leader has been moved secretly prison IK-2 in Pokrov, 100km to the northeast of Moscow without notifying any of his people or supporters of where he is being taken. Alexei Navalny said in May that he could be transferred to the maximum security colony IK-6 in Melehovo in the Vladimir region. “My sentence has not yet entered into force, but the prisoners from the strict regime colony Melehovo (another 150 km further to the east) write that they are equipping a “prison within a prison” for me,” Navalny said.
  • Casualties – Approximately 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia’s invasion of the country in February, according to a military adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy. He added that the daily numbers of Ukrainian casualties were around “200 to 300 die, no less.”
  • Donbas – Shelling continues incessantly
  • POWs – Occupation authorities in parts of Donetsk region of Ukraine sentenced POWs, Britons Aiden Aslin, 28, and Shaun Pinner, 48 and citizen of Morocco Saadun Bragim to death. All three were charged under the articles of the Criminal Code of the DPR “Forcible seizure of power or forcible retention of power” and “Mercenary”. According to Alexander Nikulin , presiding in the court, the convicts pleaded guilty to all charges. They have a month to appeal the court’s decision. All three intend to appeal. One of the lawyers for the convicts, Pavel Kosovan, said that, most likely, foreigners would ask the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, for a pardon. UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, has said the men are entitled to combatant immunity as prisoners of war. “The judgement against them is an egregious breach of the Geneva convention,” Truss said. “The UK continues to back Ukraine against Putin’s barbaric invasion.” In addition, two former US Marines from Alabama were captured near Kharkiv, Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 29, and the Kremlin has indicated they will treat them in the same way, as mercenaries.
  • People of the West – pray that they rise up against their governments and demand they back Ukraine with more than words and do NOT negotiate with Russia, giving Putin land for grain or a ceasefire, rather than a military tribunal for him and the other war criminals.
  • Ukrainian Prisoners of War – There are about 8,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war held in the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, the Luhansk official Rodion Miroshnik has said.
  • Unity – there are movements beginning with Ukraine to begin to blame various people and parties for Ukraine’s situation, attempting to create division calling for various people to be charged with corruption, rather than waiting till after the war. Former president Petroshenko’s party in retaliation for the difficulties he’s had leaving the country to negotiate with the Lithuanians last week, has called for an investigation into why Zelensky and his party did not prepare better for the invasion.
  • Melitopol – there is a huge partisan movement among the people in this reason and they have taken out many railroad bridges and trains.
  • Ruble – the Russian currency is surging to 7-year highs, that although artificial indicate that funds are flowing into Russia rapidly (as Europe attempts to refill stockpiles and India and other companies take advantage of discounted oil) meaning that Russia is being kept afloat.
  • EU – Hungary continues to block a true oil embargo
  • IMF – The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has said the war in Ukrainehas darkened the outlook for the global economy and could result in recession for more vulnerable countries and predicted that 2022 would be a tough year and declined to rule out a global recession if conditions worsened markedly.
  • Zaporozhia/Kryvyi Rih/Kherson – Shelling continues as the Russians attempt to move forward and Russia has blocked all exit from these regions as people line up at the borders
  • Kherson – Russia is stopping humanitarian aid from reaching hundreds of thousands of people in the region of Kherson, Ukraine said. Doctors could run out of medicine for chronically ill patients in two weeks, a Ukrainian official said. As they implement a ruble zone here it only increases the lack as people do not have rubles to purchase the need supplies.
  • NATO – Even as Finland and Sweden apply to join along, Turkey continues to veto it even as negotiations continue.
  • Russian Navy – Russian Navy – All operating submarines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet went to sea from Sevastopol as seen by the fact that they are targeting military installations in Lviv
  • Fuel – Russia continues to strike fuel refineries and stores (including in Lviv yesterday) destroying its Ukrainian production capacity and fuel tanks, continuing to create dangerously low availability of fuel, meaning much of Ukraine’s economy and food supply could be affected, but also the military and humanitarian aid distribution.
  • Food – prices soar 60% as India, the world’s second largest producer, blocks exports due to low harvest from heat wave. Pray for the world food supplies as Wheat make up 15% of all the worlds calories consumed. And much higher for impoverished countries. Ukraine produces 7% of the worlds wheat and Russia 11% meaning 3% of the entire food supply for the world is cut off, and again a much higher percentage for developing world. While corn makes up 19.5% of global calories and Ukraine produces 2.6% and Russia with 2.3% of world supplies, meaning a further decrease in 1% of the world calorie intake for a total between wheat and corn of 4%. A response to this is that “the Russian invasion is a large shock for agricultural commodity markets, but not historically large. Markets and trade patterns will adjust to absorb it. Farmers around the world will produce more and consumers will cut back or substitute. The transition may be difficult in some places, especially countries such as Egypt that typically rely on wheat from Russia and Ukraine who must be helped to find alternate suppliers. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has warned of “a hurricane of hunger” if Ukrainian grain is not exported. The world’s 41 least-developed nations import a third of their wheat from Ukraineand Russia. Soaring food prices have already driven inflation levels in Egypt to the highest level since mid-2019.
  • Russian Military – trying to create panic among the Ukrainian civilian population and to disrupt the supply lines in the rear, but has minimum success on the battlefield.
  • Mines – Almost half of the territory of Ukraine needs humanitarian demining – this is about 300,000 square kilometers, according to the State Emergency Service. Every day, an average of 2,000 to 6,000 explosive items are seized and rendered harmless in the country. One day of active hostilities is equal to 30 days of demining. For example, it will take about a year and a half to clear mines in the Kyiv region, where the fighting lasted a month. “Spring is coming, overgrown with grass, and in a week explosive devices cannot be installed visually, only devices. A few months later, due to rains, they sink underground to a depth of 3-5-7 centimeters, they are not visible at all, but they are still working,” the minister said. (As a sign of what supernatural resolutions can be possible, but during the Vietnam War, the United States strategically placed mines in North Vietnamese waters area that were set to detonate when a ship was in close proximity. In August 1972, a large number of these magnetic mines simultaneously started exploding. Upon investigation, the US found out that the cause of these explosions, which were estimated to be as many as 4,000, were not enemy ships. As it turned out, the culprit was a powerful historical series of solar storms with an extreme solar flare, solar particle events, and geomagnetic storm components hit the Earth.)
  • Testing the West – multiple alternative narratives are being focus-grouped by politicians – Like assuming Russia taking half of Ukraine is a done deal. Or turning Ukraine into Cyprus – divided state with Chinese soldiers occupying
  • Narrative – probing attacks from many directions in the media and with politicians continue as they attempt to discover a way to distract, divide or dissuade support for Ukraine and for Russia’s total expulsion from Ukraine and for Russian government to be held accountable. Continue to pray for solidarity and truth and those in occupied territories who are suffering and/or have been deported will be heard and not forgotten or abandoned.
  • Social Media – Russia’s online trolling operation is becoming increasingly decentralised and is gaining “incredible traction” on TikTok with misinformation aimed at sowing doubt over events in Ukraine, a US social media researcher has warned.
  • PTSD – they are seeing that those fleeing the Russians are holding on for about 10 days and then face complete mental breakdown.
  • 6 Russian Key Objectives to Pray Against
    • Kharkiv – Destroy, Encircle, Capture
    • Izyum – push south to encircle Donbas
    • Slavyonsk and Kramatorsk – in the east to complete a smaller encirclement of the cities
    • Mariupol – completely destroy all opposition and export the populations
    • Zaporozhye – Russian troops are building up forces and building logistics a massive concerted attack
    • Kherson – Russia is facing sabotage from the people but is still attempting to push north toward Kryvyi Rih and west toward Mykolaiv, then to Odessa and to Transnistria and eventually to Moldova.
  • Occupied Conscription – there is much evidence that Russia is desperately attempting to catch and conscript any and all able men in the occupied regions of Izyum, Kherson & Zaporozhye and force them to fight for them.
  • Deportations – Russia has deported over 750,000 people from Ukraine to Russia. 134,000 of those from Mariupol alone.
  • Mercenaries – Continue to pray for all mercenaries to be neutralized in any way!
  • Logistics – Russia logistical challenges are still problematic even though the supply lines to the Donbas are shorter, and much will depend on the condition of the roads and railways.
  • Refugees – now 6.5 million have fled Ukraine. Pray for their safety, provision and care.
  • West – pray that the pressure would continue to mount on western leaders to ban oil and gas imports and to continue to increase meaningful heavy arms donations.
  • Russia – pray that the emotional need to make a huge statement and reaction to the sinking of Moskva will lead to Russia moving prematurely and without adequate preparation and coordination and thereby dooming their own assault. Or to make a move that so steels international resolve that it makes supporting Russia impossible even for China and India.
  • Russian People – pray they understand the Truth and reject the lies they’ve been told and rise up
  • US – pray that Lend/Lease gets fast-tracked and raise on the House floor and approved today
  • China – has doubled down and the Russian propaganda and refused to admit the atrocities were committed by Russia or any other point

Pray Points – Continued

  • Ukraine – Almost two-thirds of Ukrainian children have fled their homes, the UN says. About 4.8 million out of 7.5 million children had to leave their homes, said Manuel Fontaine from UNICEF. He confirmed the deaths of 142 children, but added that the number is “almost certainly higher”
  • Economy – Ukraine economy to contract 45.1% this year, Russia 11.2%: World Bank
  • Rage – Pray against rage as videos have come to the four about Ukrainian soldiers summarily executing Russian soldiers. Although they can obviously feel incredibly justified, this is destructive to them and provides ammunition to Russia their attempt to create an alternative narrative in Ukraine.
  • Russian Military – Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk. The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as Russian focuses on Donbas. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction S-300 SAM at Chuhuiv airbase and Starobohdanovka in Mykolaiv region. Also claimed destruction of National Guard base in Zvonetske of Dnipropetrovsk region
  • TRUTH – pray that an ever-increasing steady stream of the atrocities committed by the Russians will be revealed and documented to maintain the ever-increasing pressure on political leaders and parties to act with speed, vigor and determination.
  • Russian Lies – pray that all their various alternative narratives would be revealed as rags and shadows for all to see.
  • Evacuation & Panic – Ukraine has urged civilians to leave the east of the country “while the opportunity still exists” before a massive Russian military assault that it expects in the coming days. The governors of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions were calling on people to move immediately to safer areas. “It has to be done now, because later people will be under fire and face the threat of death. There is nothing they will be able to do about it.
  • May 9 – Reports are that Putin needs the invasion successful in time for the Victory Day parades, thereby threatening great attacks over the coming month. Putin would want to have an “announceable success” by then, which could create “some tension” with Russian commanders as exhausted forces were likely to be thrown into battle fairly soon in an attempt to gain ground in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. This also is at the end of the 30-day default negotiation period (ending on May 5) meaning incredible pressure is on Russia to achieve victory by then.
  • Europe/US – pray they will block all gas imports and provide truly meaningful military support.
  • Oil – Pray that Europe would have the political will to do a complete embargo of Russian fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.)
  • Occupied – Many villages completely cut off from all supplies and food and water!
  • Global Food – there could be a global food crisis as Ukrainian farmers are being forced to limit what they plant due to the war. And also due to the fact that the main ways that they have a reaching global markets through the Black Sea is now blocked by Russia. Russia and Ukraine together produce 25% of all green in the world!
  • Refugees – According to Polish border guards, more than 2.4 million people have fled Ukraine to Poland . However, supplies have dropped off and now the whole regions are struggling.
  • For the Weak – Russia has flown more than 300 air sorties over Ukraine in the past 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official
  • Russian Elites – to turn on one another and on Putin
  • Russian Military – continuing to press in the north, but the real danger is that Russia seems to preparing for an all-out push in Donbas to encircle the Ukrainian army and to take the entire region and to create a united front against Ukraine.
  • Russian Soldiers – pray for their physical, emotional and spiritual well-being and for them to have the courage to face the Truth and the opportunity to receive the Gospel which is the ONLY answer to the atrocities they’ve already committed.
  • Russian Opposition – that those in the inner circle will see a way out and that Russian Opposition would be able to gather together in a meaningful way
  • The Truth – In all things that the Truth would be painfully evident and unavoidable in all public discussion
  • Ukrainian Army – Russia is attempting to encircle the Ukrainian Army in Donbas
  • Russia – for the people to wake up to the Truth and rise up
  • Putin’s Inner Circle – to fragment and turn on one another
  • Protection of the Weak
  • The West – to not grow numb to atrocities, but be compelled to action
    • Sanctions – Loopholes would be closed and sanctions rendered effective
    • Oil Embargo – That Europe would make the choice to stop immediately at the very least paying for gas & oil
    • Heavy Weapons – provide planes, tanks, heavy artillery and high-altitude weapons

Prayer Strategies

  • Corruption & Domination Falls
    • Russia, Belarus & Ukraine
    • The Former Soviet Union
    • China, India, UAE & Saudi Arabia
  • Truth & Freedom prevail
  • The Gospel is spreads like wildfire
    • From Ukraine
    • To Russia
    • To the whole world

Prayer Encouragement

“Each time, before you intercede, be quiet first, and worship God in His glory. Think of what He can do, and how He delights to hear the prayers of His redeemed people. Think of your place and privilege in Christ, and expect great things!”  — Andrew Murray